Kurszettel №092 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged +0.4%. 39 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in ams-OSRAM.

Avg 1-wk+0.4%Buy-rated39/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 25,427Total P&L+84.7%CHF 11,661Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 0 / 4Diversification6.5 eff · top 25%Ann. volatility42%

Currency exposure — USD 76% · EUR 15% · CHF 9%. Effective holdings 6.5 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 27); -17.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +23% to target · vol 64% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 6,395 25%

+269.1% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 23); -6.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +49% to target · vol 36% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 3,903 15%

+127.0% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 22); -6.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +56% to target · vol 36% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,480 14%

+122.1% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 72); +3.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -5% to target · vol 24% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,442 14%

+93.2% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 50; +5.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +15% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,596 10%

+63.9% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 46; -1.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +9% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,456 10%

+48.9% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 74); +10.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -2% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,284 9%

+17.1% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 66; +10.4% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +3% to target · vol 45% · maxDD -46% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 871 3%

-51.1% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+93% · 57
Tesla TSLA+49% · 68
Logitech LOGN.SW+17% · 59
Adobe ADBE-51% · 56

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Amazon AMZN new93 · +34% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add92 · +56% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new92 · +64% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add91 · +49% tgt
Micron MU new91 · +78% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new91 · +40% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new91 · +37% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new90 · +34% tgt
Adyen ADYEN.AS new90 · +45% tgt
Meta Platforms META new90 · +31% tgt
AMD AMD add89 · +23% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add88 · +15% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

ams-OSRAM AMS.SW+17
Meta Platforms META+7
AMD AMD+6
VAT Group VACN.SW+6
Microsoft MSFT+3

Conviction fading

Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST-29
Adobe ADBE-8
ServiceNow NOW-8
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PA-7
Spotify SPOT-6

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

ams-OSRAM AMS.SWREDUCE → ACCUMULATE

Downgraded

Apple AAPLACCUMULATE → HOLD
Adobe ADBEACCUMULATE → HOLD
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STHOLD → SELL
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PAACCUMULATE → HOLD
Ericsson ERIC-B.STHOLD → REDUCE
Temenos TEMN.SWBUY → ACCUMULATE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 20 (subdued); Software (IGV) leading at +3.2% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,624-0.52%-1.0%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.25,955-0.21%-3.7%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)19.65+1.03%+32.1%▲ above 200d
US 10y yield4.99+0.71%-3.4%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)183.23+0.49%-5.9%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)527.20+0.74%-12.2%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)110.59+1.72%+3.2%▲ above 200d