Kurszettel №086 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged -4.1%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in Arm Holdings.

Avg 1-wk-4.1%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 25,481Total P&L+85.2%CHF 11,723Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 0 / 4Diversification6.4 eff · top 26%Ann. volatility44%

Currency exposure — USD 75% · EUR 16% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.4 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 29); -3.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +19% to target · vol 64% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 6,537 26%

+277.7% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 43; +4.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +43% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,097 16%

+138.3% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 33); -2.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +54% to target · vol 37% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,530 14%

+125.4% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 56; +1.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -4% to target · vol 25% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,397 13%

+90.8% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 63; +6.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +13% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,616 10%

+65.3% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 48; -3.1% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +12% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,339 9%

+41.9% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 63; +2.3% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +3% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,157 8%

+10.6% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 62; -3.0% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +11% to target · vol 47% · maxDD -46% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 808 3%

-54.6% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+91% · 58
Tesla TSLA+42% · 71
Logitech LOGN.SW+11% · 64
Adobe ADBE-55% · 62

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Amazon AMZN new94 · +33% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new94 · +60% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add94 · +54% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add93 · +43% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +26% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new93 · +31% tgt
Micron MU new93 · +78% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new93 · +42% tgt
Snowflake SNOW new91 · +39% tgt
Comet Holding COTN.SW new91 · +63% tgt
AMD AMD add90 · +19% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add88 · +13% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Arm Holdings ARM+19
AMD AMD+18
ams-OSRAM AMS.SW+17
VAT Group VACN.SW+16
Palo Alto Networks PANW+15

Conviction fading

Nokia NOKIA.HE-17
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST-14
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PA-9
Ericsson ERIC-B.ST-5
Logitech LOGN.SW-5

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Palantir PLTRACCUMULATE → BUY
Palo Alto Networks PANWACCUMULATE → BUY
Arm Holdings ARMACCUMULATE → BUY
Intel INTCACCUMULATE → BUY
VAT Group VACN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY
ams-OSRAM AMS.SWREDUCE → HOLD

Downgraded

Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STACCUMULATE → HOLD
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PAACCUMULATE → HOLD
Ericsson ERIC-B.STHOLD → REDUCE
Temenos TEMN.SWBUY → ACCUMULATE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 20 (subdued); S&P 500 leading at +0.3% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,659-1.09%+0.3%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,140-2.15%-1.1%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)19.99+21.45%+29.5%▲ above 200d
US 10y yield5.10+0.18%+3.1%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)183.47-3.02%-2.4%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)539.79-3.41%-3.7%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)104.34-4.80%-1.4%▲ above 200d