Kurszettel №080 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged -0.2%. 42 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in Intel.

Avg 1-wk-0.2%Buy-rated42/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 27,297Total P&L+97.0%CHF 13,440Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 0 / 4Diversification6.1 eff · top 28%Ann. volatility45%

Currency exposure — USD 76% · EUR 16% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.1 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 47; +20.8% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +5% to target · vol 63% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 7,583 28%

+334.4% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 70; +8.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +28% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,475 16%

+158.3% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 53; +5.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +43% to target · vol 37% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,812 14%

+141.3% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 47; +3.1% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -3% to target · vol 27% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,358 12%

+87.0% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 72); +8.7% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +10% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,669 10%

+67.2% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 55; +5.3% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +4% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,545 9%

+53.1% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 44; +1.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +11% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,050 8%

+5.1% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 43; -2.6% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +14% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -46% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 806 3%

-55.1% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+87% · 59
Tesla TSLA+53% · 64
Logitech LOGN.SW+5% · 68
Adobe ADBE-55% · 66

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

NVIDIA NVDA add94 · +43% tgt
CD Projekt 7CD.F new94
ASML ASML.AS add94 · +28% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new93 · +47% tgt
Amazon AMZN new93 · +26% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +22% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new92 · +18% tgt
Micron MU new91 · +51% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new91 · +22% tgt
Infineon IFX.DE new90 · +47% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add85 · +10% tgt
AMD AMD add76 · +5% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Intel INTC+12
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST+10
CD Projekt 7CD.F+9
ams-OSRAM AMS.SW+6
Arm Holdings ARM+5

Conviction fading

TSMC (ADR) TSM-9
Spotify SPOT-7
Tesla TSLA-6
Palantir PLTR-5
Xiaomi 1810.HK-5

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Arm Holdings ARMACCUMULATE → BUY
Intel INTCHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STACCUMULATE → BUY
VAT Group VACN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY

Downgraded

Nokia NOKIA.HEBUY → ACCUMULATE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (calm); Software (IGV) leading at +11.3% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,812+0.59%+2.9%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.27,366+0.64%+4.9%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)14.84-3.70%-16.8%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield5.24+0.25%+6.1%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)198.78+0.51%+7.3%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)603.33-0.65%+7.7%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)112.67+2.81%+11.3%▲ above 200d