Kurszettel №074 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged +1.6%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in Divio Technologies.

Avg 1-wk+1.6%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 27,696Total P&L+100.1%CHF 13,858Keep / Sell / Buy5 / 0 / 3Diversification6.0 eff · top 28%Ann. volatility46%

Currency exposure — USD 76% · EUR 17% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.0 of 8.

AMD AMD KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 84); +38.7% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, -2% to target · vol 66% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 7,893 28%

+352.8% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 92); +16.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +24% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,607 17%

+166.6% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 83); +4.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +40% to target · vol 38% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,884 14%

+146.3% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 51; +2.7% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -2% to target · vol 27% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,324 12%

+85.4% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 58; +4.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +12% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,578 9%

+61.7% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 58; +3.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +7% to target · vol 50% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,461 9%

+48.2% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 61; +5.7% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +5% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,160 8%

+10.8% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); oversold (RSI 26); -15.0% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +16% to target · vol 47% · maxDD -46% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 789 3%

-56.0% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

AMD AMD+353% · 71
Apple AAPL+85% · 60
Tesla TSLA+48% · 66
Logitech LOGN.SW+11% · 66
Adobe ADBE-56% · 68

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Broadcom AVGO new95 · +50% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add95 · +40% tgt
Micron MU new94 · +41% tgt
Amazon AMZN new94 · +31% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add94 · +24% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +25% tgt
Snowflake SNOW new92 · +25% tgt
Comet Holding COTN.SW new92 · +35% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new92 · +17% tgt
Infineon IFX.DE new92 · +34% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add87 · +12% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST+28
CD Projekt 7CD.F+11
Arm Holdings ARM+7
Qualcomm QCOM+6
Meta Platforms META+4

Conviction fading

ASML (ADR) ASML-8
VAT Group VACN.SW-5
TSMC (ADR) TSM-3
Microsoft MSFT-2
AMD AMD-2

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Qualcomm QCOMHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Arm Holdings ARMHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STSELL → HOLD

Downgraded

AMD AMDBUY → ACCUMULATE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (subdued); Semis (SMH) leading at +14.6% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,723+0.73%+0.7%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.27,191+1.19%+3.7%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)15.31-6.59%+6.9%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield5.28+0.76%+10.0%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)199.81+1.01%+8.8%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)630.60+2.07%+14.6%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)108.43+0.18%+4.8%▲ above 200d