The conviction list — October 2026

Synthesising the past 4 weeks of daily readings, the strongest, most persistent signal sits with Snowflake. The conviction list below ranks names by strength, consistency and improvement of their signal.

Where you stand — your holdings

Currency exposure — USD 75% · EUR 17% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.1 of 8.

• AMD AMD ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 75); +30.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +1% to target · vol 67% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00
  CHF 7,681 28%

  +337.0% P&L
• ASML ASML.AS ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 70); +13.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +26% to target · vol 42% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00
  CHF 4,617 17%

  +162.1% P&L
• NVIDIA NVDA ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 64; +3.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +43% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00
  CHF 3,823 14%

  +140.4% P&L
• Apple AAPL KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 58; +5.1% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -1% to target · vol 28% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00
  CHF 3,345 12%

  +85.0% P&L
• Microsoft MSFT ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 62; +1.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +13% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00
  CHF 2,576 9%

  +60.3% P&L
• Tesla TSLA KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 44; -3.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +12% to target · vol 53% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00
  CHF 2,376 9%

  +41.9% P&L
• Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 54; +7.3% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +8% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00
  CHF 2,122 8%

  +8.8% P&L
• Adobe ADBE KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 44; -18.1% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +15% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -46% · 4 sh @ $540.00
  CHF 803 3%

  -55.6% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 16 (subdued); Semis (SMH) leading at +9.4% 1-mo.

• Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
• S&P 5007,652-0.25%-0.5%▲ above 200d
• Nasdaq Comp.26,861+0.24%+1.9%▲ above 200d
• VIX (fear)16.34+1.87%+0.0%▼ below 200d
• US 10y yield5.29+0.72%+11.2%▲ above 200d
• Tech (XLK)195.75+0.64%+5.0%▲ above 200d
• Semis (SMH)609.00+0.35%+9.4%▲ above 200d
• Software (IGV)106.48+1.20%-3.2%▲ above 200d

Conviction list — the idea pool

Built from 28 readings over the trailing ~4 weeks. Ranked by how strong, how consistent and how improving each name's signal has been. The suggested allocation bar weights by conviction.

• 01
  Snowflake SNOW US BUY

  +25% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 57; +2.5% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +25% to target

  avg 85 buy-rated 100% trend +20 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  9%

  $339.56 · +2.5%
• 02
  TSMC (ADR) TSM US BUY

  +21% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 67; +9.8% 1-mo; analysts: none, +21% to target

  avg 94 buy-rated 100% trend +8 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  9%

  $456.19 · +9.8%
• 03
  Broadcom AVGO US BUY

  +51% to analyst target; signal steady; below 200-day; RSI 44; -5.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +51% to target

  avg 94 buy-rated 100% trend +2 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $351.19 · -5.2%
• 04
  NVIDIA NVDA US BUY

  +43% to analyst target; signal steady; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 64; +3.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +43% to target

  avg 95 buy-rated 100% trend +1 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $228.38 · +3.4%
• 05
  Micron MU US BUY

  +44% to analyst target; signal steady; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 65; +11.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +44% to target

  avg 94 buy-rated 100% trend +1 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $1,065 · +11.1%
• 06
  Alphabet GOOGL US BUY

  +25% to analyst target; signal steady; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 59; +1.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +25% to target

  avg 93 buy-rated 100% trend +1 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $344.08 · +1.4%
• 07
  Amazon AMZN US BUY

  +32% to analyst target; signal steady; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 47; -4.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +32% to target

  avg 94 buy-rated 100% trend -0 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $249.15 · -4.1%
• 08
  Infineon IFX.DE EU BUY

  +41% to analyst target; signal steady; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 62; +10.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +41% to target

  avg 91 buy-rated 100% trend +3 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  €61.35 · +10.5%
• 09
  ASML ASML.AS EU BUY

  +26% to analyst target; signal steady; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 70); +13.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +26% to target

  avg 93 buy-rated 100% trend +0 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  €1,625 · +13.2%
• 10
  SAP (ADR) SAP US BUY

  +21% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 54; -5.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +21% to target

  avg 87 buy-rated 100% trend +6 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $208.48 · -5.6%
• 11
  SAP SAP.DE EU BUY

  +15% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 57; -1.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +15% to target

  avg 86 buy-rated 100% trend +4 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  €182.08 · -1.2%
• 12
  ASML (ADR) ASML US BUY

  +16% to analyst target; signal steady; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 63; +6.8% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +16% to target

  avg 92 buy-rated 100% trend -2 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $1,812 · +6.8%

Direction of travel

IPO radar

No upcoming or recent IPOs pulled this run.