Kurszettel №067 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged +2.4%. 39 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in CD Projekt.

Avg 1-wk+2.4%Buy-rated39/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 27,230Total P&L+96.3%CHF 13,360Keep / Sell / Buy5 / 0 / 3Diversification6.0 eff · top 29%Ann. volatility49%

Currency exposure — USD 76% · EUR 16% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.0 of 8.

AMD AMD KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 80); +31.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, -2% to target · vol 70% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 7,854 29%

+350.5% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 53; +2.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +34% to target · vol 44% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,315 16%

+145.6% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 44; +7.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +46% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,738 14%

+136.9% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 74); +8.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -4% to target · vol 28% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,398 12%

+89.5% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 60; +4.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +12% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,571 9%

+61.3% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 64; +7.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +7% to target · vol 55% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,472 9%

+48.8% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 58; +6.1% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +8% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,100 8%

+7.7% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); oversold (RSI 29); -13.9% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +18% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -46% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 782 3%

-56.4% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

AMD AMD+350% · 71
Apple AAPL+89% · 59
Tesla TSLA+49% · 67
Logitech LOGN.SW+8% · 69
Adobe ADBE-56% · 70

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Broadcom AVGO new95 · +51% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add95 · +46% tgt
Micron MU new94 · +40% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new94 · +23% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new94 · +25% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add93 · +34% tgt
Amazon AMZN new93 · +32% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new93 · +22% tgt
Comet Holding COTN.SW new92 · +45% tgt
Snowflake SNOW new92 · +27% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add86 · +12% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

CD Projekt 7CD.F+43
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST+21
Salesforce CRM+10
Adobe ADBE+7
Spotify SPOT+6

Conviction fading

Arm Holdings ARM-23
AMD AMD-21
Intel INTC-19
ams-OSRAM AMS.SW-16
VAT Group VACN.SW-10

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

CD Projekt 7CD.FSELL → ACCUMULATE
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STSELL → REDUCE
Nokia NOKIA.HEACCUMULATE → BUY
Ericsson ERIC-B.STREDUCE → HOLD

Downgraded

AMD AMDBUY → ACCUMULATE
Qualcomm QCOMACCUMULATE → HOLD
Palantir PLTRBUY → ACCUMULATE
Arm Holdings ARMBUY → ACCUMULATE
Intel INTCBUY → HOLD
VAT Group VACN.SWBUY → ACCUMULATE
ams-OSRAM AMS.SWHOLD → REDUCE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (calm); Semis (SMH) leading at +9.1% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,743+0.51%+0.9%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.27,069+0.48%+3.6%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)14.87-5.11%+2.5%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield5.18+0.43%+11.1%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)196.27+0.80%+7.3%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)606.56+1.01%+9.1%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)106.01-1.06%+3.5%▲ above 200d