Kurszettel №061 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged +0.2%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in CD Projekt.

Avg 1-wk+0.2%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 25,581Total P&L+85.5%CHF 11,790Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 0 / 4Diversification6.3 eff · top 27%Ann. volatility49%

Currency exposure — USD 76% · EUR 15% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.3 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 73); +20.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +10% to target · vol 69% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 6,918 27%

+299.9% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 37; -9.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +46% to target · vol 47% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 3,959 15%

+125.2% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 55; +2.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +47% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,662 14%

+134.0% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 65; +6.1% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -2% to target · vol 31% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,323 13%

+86.7% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 39; +2.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +16% to target · vol 42% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,441 10%

+54.3% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 57; +3.7% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +9% to target · vol 56% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,401 9%

+45.7% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 62; +2.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +10% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,058 8%

+5.6% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); oversold (RSI 28); -8.6% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +12% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 820 3%

-53.9% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+87% · 60
Tesla TSLA+46% · 69
Logitech LOGN.SW+6% · 70
Adobe ADBE-54% · 64

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Micron MU new95 · +49% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new94 · +49% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add94 · +47% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new94 · +27% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new94 · +22% tgt
Amazon AMZN new94 · +29% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new92 · +27% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add92 · +46% tgt
Snowflake SNOW new91 · +28% tgt
Comet Holding COTN.SW new91 · +54% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add89 · +16% tgt
AMD AMD add83 · +10% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

CD Projekt 7CD.F+40
ams-OSRAM AMS.SW+11
Salesforce CRM+6
Occidental OXY+5
Temenos TEMN.SW+5

Conviction fading

Netflix NFLX-12
AMD AMD-8
Logitech LOGN.SW-8
Palo Alto Networks PANW-7
Ericsson ERIC-B.ST-6

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Occidental OXYACCUMULATE → BUY
CD Projekt 7CD.FSELL → HOLD
Temenos TEMN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY
ams-OSRAM AMS.SWREDUCE → HOLD

Downgraded

Arm Holdings ARMBUY → ACCUMULATE
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PABUY → ACCUMULATE
Ericsson ERIC-B.STHOLD → REDUCE
Logitech LOGN.SWBUY → ACCUMULATE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (calm); Tech (XLK) leading at +3.2% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,650+0.17%-0.7%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,523+0.39%+0.7%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)14.81-4.08%-7.5%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield5.00+1.03%+7.4%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)189.60+0.82%+3.2%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)573.00+2.21%+2.2%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)104.35-1.35%+1.5%▲ above 200d