Kurszettel №055 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged -0.5%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in Netflix.

Avg 1-wk-0.5%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 25,112Total P&L+82.9%CHF 11,380Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 0 / 4Diversification6.4 eff · top 25%Ann. volatility49%

Currency exposure — USD 75% · EUR 17% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.4 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 63; +6.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +19% to target · vol 71% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 6,339 25%

+268.7% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 45; -5.7% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +37% to target · vol 47% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,197 17%

+138.5% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 52; -2.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +50% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,575 14%

+129.8% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 71); +9.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -2% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,265 13%

+84.6% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 57; +0.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +16% to target · vol 43% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,435 10%

+54.9% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 51; +11.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +7% to target · vol 56% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,394 10%

+46.2% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 69; -1.2% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +8% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,082 8%

+6.8% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 36; -2.5% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +11% to target · vol 49% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 826 3%

-53.3% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+85% · 61
Tesla TSLA+46% · 66
Logitech LOGN.SW+7% · 68
Adobe ADBE-53% · 64

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Netflix NFLX new98 · +21% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new95 · +47% tgt
Micron MU new94 · +55% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add94 · +50% tgt
Amazon AMZN new94 · +28% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new94 · +27% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add93 · +37% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +26% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new92 · +27% tgt
AMD AMD add92 · +19% tgt
Meta Platforms META new92 · +17% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add89 · +16% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Netflix NFLX+16
Snowflake SNOW+12
Adobe ADBE+10
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PA+9
Temenos TEMN.SW+7

Conviction fading

Intel INTC-27
Nokia NOKIA.HE-26
Qualcomm QCOM-20
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST-13
Arm Holdings ARM-9

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Adobe ADBEHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PAACCUMULATE → BUY
Temenos TEMN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY

Downgraded

Qualcomm QCOMBUY → ACCUMULATE
Intel INTCBUY → ACCUMULATE
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STREDUCE → SELL
Ericsson ERIC-B.STHOLD → REDUCE
ams-OSRAM AMS.SWHOLD → REDUCE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 16 (subdued); Tech (XLK) leading at -0.6% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,657+0.86%-1.2%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,333+0.96%-1.0%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)15.84-11.21%+8.3%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield4.97+0.63%+6.3%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)187.67+1.32%-0.6%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)568.53+1.47%-2.8%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)101.52+0.32%-1.5%▲ above 200d