Kurszettel №049 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged -0.3%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in Snowflake.

Avg 1-wk-0.3%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 24,452Total P&L+79.5%CHF 10,826Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 0 / 4Diversification6.6 eff · top 24%Ann. volatility50%

Currency exposure — USD 75% · EUR 17% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.6 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 40; -2.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +29% to target · vol 73% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 5,808 24%

+241.1% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 25); -1.8% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +39% to target · vol 47% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,145 17%

+136.7% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 54; +5.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +42% to target · vol 41% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,736 15%

+142.5% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 64; +2.4% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +1% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,113 13%

+77.8% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 62; -0.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +15% to target · vol 44% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,431 10%

+56.2% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 55; +10.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +10% to target · vol 58% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,297 9%

+41.6% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 49; -2.7% 1-mo; analysts: none, +8% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,058 8%

+5.5% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 58; +2.4% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +4% to target · vol 51% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 864 4%

-50.6% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+78% · 63
Tesla TSLA+42% · 70
Logitech LOGN.SW+6% · 70
Adobe ADBE-51% · 58

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

NVIDIA NVDA add95 · +42% tgt
Meta Platforms META new94 · +22% tgt
Micron MU new94 · +49% tgt
Amazon AMZN new94 · +27% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new94 · +49% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new93 · +29% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +26% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new92 · +26% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add92 · +39% tgt
AMD AMD add92 · +29% tgt
Snowflake SNOW new92 · +23% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add88 · +15% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Snowflake SNOW+16
Palo Alto Networks PANW+10
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PA+7
Nokia NOKIA.HE+6
Adobe ADBE+4

Conviction fading

Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST-30
CD Projekt 7CD.F-19
Salesforce CRM-14
ServiceNow NOW-12
Tesla TSLA-3

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Adobe ADBEHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Nokia NOKIA.HEACCUMULATE → BUY

Downgraded

Tesla TSLABUY → ACCUMULATE
CD Projekt 7CD.FREDUCE → SELL
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STACCUMULATE → REDUCE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (calm); Software (IGV) leading at +5.2% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,719-0.38%+0.1%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,507-0.29%+0.6%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)14.53+1.47%-4.1%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield4.78+0.46%+2.4%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)187.28+0.70%+1.1%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)567.01+2.61%-0.8%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)104.57-2.23%+5.2%▲ above 200d