The conviction list — September 2026

Synthesising the past 4 weeks of daily readings, the strongest, most persistent signal sits with Amazon. The conviction list below ranks names by strength, consistency and improvement of their signal.

Where you stand — your holdings

Currency exposure — USD 75% · EUR 17% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.7 of 8.

• AMD AMD ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 49; -1.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +30% to target · vol 76% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00
  CHF 5,716 24%

  +236.2% P&L
• ASML ASML.AS ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 36; +2.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +38% to target · vol 47% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00
  CHF 4,126 17%

  +136.2% P&L
• NVIDIA NVDA ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 53; +10.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +46% to target · vol 43% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00
  CHF 3,575 15%

  +132.4% P&L
• Apple AAPL KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 65; +2.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +2% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00
  CHF 3,078 13%

  +76.0% P&L
• Microsoft MSFT ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 52; +9.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +12% to target · vol 45% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00
  CHF 2,464 10%

  +58.5% P&L
• Tesla TSLA KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 65; +18.2% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +6% to target · vol 57% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00
  CHF 2,383 10%

  +47.2% P&L
• Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 36; -3.0% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +11% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00
  CHF 1,991 8%

  +2.1% P&L
• Adobe ADBE KEEP

  neutral — hold and watch · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 69; +16.9% 1-mo; analysts: hold, -8% to target · vol 50% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00
  CHF 948 4%

  -45.8% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (calm); Software (IGV) leading at +16.3% 1-mo.

• Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
• S&P 5007,686-0.33%+2.6%▲ above 200d
• Nasdaq Comp.26,371-0.12%+3.9%▲ above 200d
• VIX (fear)14.92+3.40%-6.7%▼ below 200d
• US 10y yield4.76+0.81%+0.3%▲ above 200d
• Tech (XLK)186.50+0.44%+6.4%▲ above 200d
• Semis (SMH)556.63+0.64%+3.0%▲ above 200d
• Software (IGV)109.98+0.44%+16.3%▲ above 200d

Conviction list — the idea pool

Built from 28 readings over the trailing ~4 weeks. Ranked by how strong, how consistent and how improving each name's signal has been. The suggested allocation bar weights by conviction.

• 01
  Amazon AMZN US BUY

  +26% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 38; -4.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +26% to target

  avg 92 buy-rated 100% trend +24 pts 27 readings
  allocation

  9%

  $259.77 · -4.3%
• 02
  Adyen ADYEN.AS EU BUY

  +35% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 66; +18.0% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +35% to target

  avg 89 buy-rated 96% trend +37 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  €1,035 · +18.0%
• 03
  Capgemini CAP.PA EU BUY

  +33% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 43; +3.2% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +33% to target

  avg 88 buy-rated 96% trend +36 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  €105.80 · +3.2%
• 04
  Microsoft MSFT US BUY

  +12% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 52; +9.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +12% to target

  avg 87 buy-rated 96% trend +31 pts 27 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $507.29 · +9.2%
• 05
  SAP SAP.DE EU BUY

  +12% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 55; +17.5% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +12% to target

  avg 86 buy-rated 96% trend +32 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  €185.24 · +17.5%
• 06
  Oracle ORCL US BUY

  +64% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 54; +14.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +64% to target

  avg 85 buy-rated 96% trend +38 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $149.12 · +14.8%
• 07
  Xiaomi 1810.HK HK BUY

  +32% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 59; -0.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +32% to target

  avg 84 buy-rated 100% trend +23 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  27.72 · -0.9%
• 08
  TSMC (ADR) TSM US BUY

  +34% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 46; +2.7% 1-mo; analysts: none, +34% to target

  avg 86 buy-rated 100% trend +17 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $415.32 · +2.7%
• 09
  Spotify SPOT US BUY

  +13% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 63; +8.7% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +13% to target

  avg 85 buy-rated 100% trend +18 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $543.62 · +8.7%
• 10
  NVIDIA NVDA US BUY

  +46% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 53; +10.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +46% to target

  avg 91 buy-rated 100% trend +12 pts 27 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $220.78 · +10.0%
• 11
  SAP (ADR) SAP US BUY

  +12% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 64; +20.3% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +12% to target

  avg 87 buy-rated 100% trend +15 pts 28 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $220.89 · +20.3%
• 12
  Broadcom AVGO US BUY

  +42% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 26); -4.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +42% to target

  avg 91 buy-rated 100% trend +10 pts 27 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $370.34 · -4.9%

Direction of travel

IPO radar