Kurszettel №042 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged +1.9%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in Divio Technologies.

Avg 1-wk+1.9%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 24,121Total P&L+77.5%CHF 10,528Keep / Sell / Buy3 / 0 / 5Diversification6.7 eff · top 23%Ann. volatility52%

Currency exposure — USD 74% · EUR 17% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.7 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 49; -4.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +32% to target · vol 76% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 5,648 23%

+232.6% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 48; +9.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +36% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,179 17%

+139.7% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 50; +11.5% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +49% to target · vol 44% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,519 15%

+129.0% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 64; -4.1% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +1% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,103 13%

+77.6% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 55; +13.8% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +11% to target · vol 45% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,492 10%

+60.5% P&L
Tesla TSLA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 59; +12.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +12% to target · vol 56% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,257 9%

+39.5% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 36; -9.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +12% to target · vol 35% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 1,980 8%

+1.5% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 61; +17.6% 1-mo; analysts: hold, -7% to target · vol 51% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 943 4%

-46.0% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+78% · 64
Logitech LOGN.SW+2% · 71
Adobe ADBE-46% · 48

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

TSMC (ADR) TSM new99 · +33% tgt
Intel INTC new98 · +28% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add95 · +49% tgt
Micron MU new94 · +62% tgt
Amazon AMZN new94 · +23% tgt
Meta Platforms META new94 · +31% tgt
Qualcomm QCOM new94 · +18% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +24% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new93 · +43% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add93 · +36% tgt
AMD AMD add91 · +32% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add85 · +11% tgt
Tesla TSLA add72 · +12% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST+44
Intel INTC+22
Qualcomm QCOM+18
TSMC (ADR) TSM+6
Snowflake SNOW+4

Conviction fading

CD Projekt 7CD.F-50
Salesforce CRM-16
Capgemini CAP.PA-12
ServiceNow NOW-11
Microsoft MSFT-7

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Snowflake SNOWACCUMULATE → BUY
Occidental OXYACCUMULATE → BUY
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STSELL → ACCUMULATE

Downgraded

Palantir PLTRBUY → ACCUMULATE
CD Projekt 7CD.FACCUMULATE → SELL

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 14 (calm); Software (IGV) leading at +17.4% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,712-0.25%+3.7%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,402-0.52%+5.1%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)14.43-0.55%-15.6%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield4.72+1.03%+1.2%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)185.69-1.55%+5.7%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)553.11-3.47%+2.6%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)109.50-0.74%+17.4%▲ above 200d