Kurszettel №036 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged -2.0%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in AMD.

Avg 1-wk-2.0%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 23,777Total P&L+76.2%CHF 10,281Keep / Sell / Buy3 / 0 / 5Diversification6.6 eff · top 24%Ann. volatility52%

Currency exposure — USD 74% · EUR 18% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.6 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 47; -12.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +30% to target · vol 77% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 5,688 24%

+238.0% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 61; -4.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +33% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,226 18%

+142.9% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 59; +2.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +42% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,441 14%

+126.0% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 57; -3.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +5% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 2,974 13%

+71.9% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 73); +13.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +8% to target · vol 56% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,326 10%

+45.1% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 47; +26.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +18% to target · vol 46% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,323 10%

+51.0% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · below 200-day; oversold (RSI 27); -9.0% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +15% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 1,918 8%

-1.6% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 64; +29.8% 1-mo; analysts: hold, -2% to target · vol 52% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 882 4%

-49.0% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+72% · 67
Tesla TSLA+45% · 68
Adobe ADBE-49% · 54

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Comet Holding COTN.SW new98 · +47% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add95 · +42% tgt
Micron MU new94 · +57% tgt
Amazon AMZN new94 · +26% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new93 · +25% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add93 · +33% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new93 · +32% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +24% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new93 · +43% tgt
Meta Platforms META new92 · +37% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add92 · +18% tgt
AMD AMD add91 · +30% tgt
Logitech LOGN.SW add73 · +15% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

AMD AMD+16
Xiaomi 1810.HK+15
Meta Platforms META+14
Logitech LOGN.SW+12
Lufthansa LHA.DE+11

Conviction fading

CD Projekt 7CD.F-20
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.ST-16
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PA-10
ams-OSRAM AMS.SW-8
Adobe ADBE-7

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Apple AAPLHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Qualcomm QCOMACCUMULATE → BUY
Intel INTCACCUMULATE → BUY
Lufthansa LHA.DEHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Nokia NOKIA.HEACCUMULATE → BUY
Logitech LOGN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY
VAT Group VACN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY

Downgraded

Tesla TSLABUY → ACCUMULATE
Adobe ADBEACCUMULATE → HOLD
Occidental OXYBUY → ACCUMULATE
CD Projekt 7CD.FBUY → ACCUMULATE
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STACCUMULATE → HOLD
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PABUY → ACCUMULATE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (subdued); Software (IGV) leading at +18.7% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,674+0.43%+3.6%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,180+0.43%+4.1%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)15.13-5.50%-19.1%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield4.74+0.89%+0.7%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)183.31+0.11%+2.7%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)560.42-0.40%-3.4%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)103.37+1.43%+18.7%▲ above 200d