Kurszettel №030 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged +1.9%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in ASML.

Avg 1-wk+1.9%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 24,909Total P&L+82.9%CHF 11,292Keep / Sell / Buy3 / 0 / 5Diversification6.4 eff · top 25%Ann. volatility53%

Currency exposure — USD 74% · EUR 18% · CHF 8%. Effective holdings 6.4 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 53; +2.7% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +19% to target · vol 79% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 6,253 25%

+267.4% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 52; +1.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +27% to target · vol 50% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,454 18%

+154.8% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 75); +8.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +34% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,649 15%

+137.0% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; oversold (RSI 26); -8.2% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +5% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 2,975 12%

+70.0% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; overbought (RSI 85); +23.5% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +15% to target · vol 46% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,409 10%

+54.8% P&L
Tesla TSLA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · downtrend (below 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 70); -12.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +16% to target · vol 56% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,219 9%

+36.9% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 42; +3.4% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +9% to target · vol 39% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,094 8%

+7.4% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · below 200-day; RSI 63; +12.2% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +2% to target · vol 52% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 856 3%

-51.1% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+70% · 67
Logitech LOGN.SW+7% · 67
Adobe ADBE-51% · 57

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

Capgemini CAP.PA new99 · +29% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add95 · +34% tgt
Amazon AMZN new95 · +25% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new95 · +34% tgt
Micron MU new94 · +55% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new94 · +28% tgt
Meta Platforms META new93 · +28% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add93 · +27% tgt
Alphabet GOOGL new93 · +24% tgt
Comet Holding COTN.SW new92 · +30% tgt
AMD AMD add91 · +19% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add89 · +15% tgt
Tesla TSLA add75 · +16% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

ASML ASML.AS+17
STMicroelectronics STMPA.PA+17
Meta Platforms META+16
Infineon IFX.DE+16
Lufthansa LHA.DE+15

Conviction fading

ams-OSRAM AMS.SW-13
Palantir PLTR-12
Adobe ADBE-10
Palo Alto Networks PANW-8
ServiceNow NOW-6

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Tesla TSLAACCUMULATE → BUY
Qualcomm QCOMACCUMULATE → BUY
Occidental OXYACCUMULATE → BUY
Lufthansa LHA.DEHOLD → ACCUMULATE
STMicroelectronics STMPA.PAACCUMULATE → BUY

Downgraded

Adobe ADBEACCUMULATE → HOLD
Divio Technologies DIVIO-B.STACCUMULATE → HOLD
Temenos TEMN.SWBUY → ACCUMULATE
ams-OSRAM AMS.SWHOLD → REDUCE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 14 (calm); Software (IGV) leading at +11.1% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,786-0.17%+3.3%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,729-0.28%+3.3%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)14.25-2.60%-14.8%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield4.70+1.19%+2.8%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)190.01-0.40%+7.0%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)587.82-0.22%+3.3%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)104.08-2.07%+11.1%▲ above 200d