Kurszettel №022 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged +6.8%. 40 of 44 names now screen as buys. Conviction rose most in Comet Holding.

Avg 1-wk+6.8%Buy-rated40/44Readings8

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 24,247Total P&L+78.5%CHF 10,664Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 0 / 4Diversification6.5 eff · top 24%Ann. volatility54%

Currency exposure — USD 74% · EUR 17% · CHF 9%. Effective holdings 6.5 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 47; -11.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +27% to target · vol 81% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 5,861 24%

+245.3% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 46; -2.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +33% to target · vol 52% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,201 17%

+141.8% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 66; +10.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +35% to target · vol 41% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,621 15%

+135.7% P&L
Apple AAPL KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 41; -0.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +3% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,040 13%

+74.1% P&L
Microsoft MSFT ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; overbought (RSI 81); +30.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +13% to target · vol 46% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 2,425 10%

+56.2% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · downtrend (below 50/200-day); oversold (RSI 35); -19.2% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +21% to target · vol 57% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,125 9%

+31.4% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 55; +4.4% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +5% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,116 9%

+8.5% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; RSI 64; +19.1% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +2% to target · vol 51% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 858 4%

-50.9% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Apple AAPL+74% · 59
Tesla TSLA+31% · 69
Logitech LOGN.SW+9% · 70
Adobe ADBE-51% · 66

Sell / Trim

— none —

Buy

NVIDIA NVDA add96 · +35% tgt
CD Projekt 7CD.F new95
Amazon AMZN new94 · +18% tgt
Salesforce CRM new91 · +25% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new91 · +23% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new89 · +29% tgt
Adyen ADYEN.AS new89 · +43% tgt
Comet Holding COTN.SW new88 · +38% tgt
ServiceNow NOW new88 · +12% tgt
Microsoft MSFT add86 · +13% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add82 · +33% tgt
AMD AMD add78 · +27% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Comet Holding COTN.SW+28
TSMC (ADR) TSM+26
ASML (ADR) ASML+23
Infineon IFX.DE+23
Micron MU+21

Conviction fading

Adobe ADBE-11
Occidental OXY-11
Spotify SPOT-10
Snowflake SNOW-8
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PA-7

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

Meta Platforms METAACCUMULATE → BUY
AMD AMDACCUMULATE → BUY
Tesla TSLAHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Oracle ORCLACCUMULATE → BUY
Qualcomm QCOMHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Micron MUACCUMULATE → BUY
Palantir PLTRACCUMULATE → BUY
Arm Holdings ARMHOLD → ACCUMULATE
TSMC (ADR) TSMACCUMULATE → BUY
ASML (ADR) ASMLACCUMULATE → BUY
Intel INTCHOLD → ACCUMULATE
ASML ASML.ASACCUMULATE → BUY
Infineon IFX.DEACCUMULATE → BUY
STMicroelectronics STMPA.PAHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Nokia NOKIA.HEHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Ericsson ERIC-B.STREDUCE → HOLD
Temenos TEMN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY
VAT Group VACN.SWHOLD → ACCUMULATE
ams-OSRAM AMS.SWREDUCE → HOLD
Comet Holding COTN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY

Downgraded

Adobe ADBEBUY → ACCUMULATE
Snowflake SNOWBUY → ACCUMULATE
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PABUY → ACCUMULATE

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 5/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 15 (calm); Software (IGV) leading at +9.4% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,758+0.62%+2.8%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.26,691+1.30%+1.8%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)14.90-1.65%-5.9%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield4.66-0.21%+2.7%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)187.97+1.42%+1.4%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)582.70+1.96%-4.1%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)102.69+3.29%+9.4%▲ above 200d