The conviction list — August 2026

Synthesising the past 4 weeks of daily readings, the strongest, most persistent signal sits with Spotify. The conviction list below ranks names by strength, consistency and improvement of their signal.

Where you stand — your holdings

Currency exposure — USD 74% · EUR 17% · CHF 9%. Effective holdings 6.5 of 8.

• AMD AMD KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 41; -12.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +21% to target · vol 88% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00
  CHF 5,767 25%

  +240.1% P&L
• ASML ASML.AS KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 40; -9.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +39% to target · vol 53% · maxDD -21% · 3 sh @ €620.00
  CHF 4,004 17%

  +131.3% P&L
• NVIDIA NVDA ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 48; +1.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +51% to target · vol 41% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00
  CHF 3,242 14%

  +111.3% P&L
• Apple AAPL KEEP+

  constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 45; +4.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +4% to target · vol 32% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00
  CHF 2,993 13%

  +71.6% P&L
• Microsoft MSFT ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; overbought (RSI 75); +20.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +21% to target · vol 45% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00
  CHF 2,251 10%

  +45.2% P&L
• Logitech LOGN.SW ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 46; +7.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +8% to target · vol 40% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00
  CHF 2,052 9%

  +5.2% P&L
• Tesla TSLA KEEP

  neutral — hold and watch · downtrend (below 50/200-day); oversold (RSI 18); -26.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +28% to target · vol 57% · maxDD -39% · 8 sh @ $250.00
  CHF 2,010 9%

  +24.5% P&L
• Adobe ADBE ADD

  strong signal — add on the monthly · below 200-day; RSI 58; +18.7% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +8% to target · vol 51% · maxDD -47% · 4 sh @ $540.00
  CHF 809 3%

  -53.6% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 4/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 16 (subdued); Software (IGV) leading at +1.3% 1-mo.

• Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
• S&P 5007,490+0.70%+0.1%▲ above 200d
• Nasdaq Comp.25,374+1.00%-2.6%▲ above 200d
• VIX (fear)15.99-6.44%-3.6%▼ below 200d
• US 10y yield4.74+1.76%+6.0%▲ above 200d
• Tech (XLK)175.35-0.22%-5.5%▲ above 200d
• Semis (SMH)540.53+0.30%-12.9%▲ above 200d
• Software (IGV)94.58+1.36%+1.3%▼ below 200d

Conviction list — the idea pool

Built from 12 readings over the trailing ~4 weeks. Ranked by how strong, how consistent and how improving each name's signal has been. The suggested allocation bar weights by conviction.

• 01
  Spotify SPOT US BUY

  +21% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 57; +5.8% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +21% to target

  avg 74 buy-rated 100% trend +26 pts 11 readings
  allocation

  9%

  $499.94 · +5.8%
• 02
  Broadcom AVGO US BUY

  +36% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 52; +5.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +36% to target

  avg 79 buy-rated 100% trend +14 pts 9 readings
  allocation

  9%

  $389.28 · +5.4%
• 03
  Amazon AMZN US BUY

  +15% to analyst target; signal strengthening; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 64; +12.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +15% to target

  avg 78 buy-rated 100% trend +11 pts 9 readings
  allocation

  9%

  $271.58 · +12.4%
• 04
  Alphabet GOOGL US BUY

  +20% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 51; -1.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +20% to target

  avg 77 buy-rated 100% trend +12 pts 9 readings
  allocation

  9%

  $356.13 · -1.4%
• 05
  Snowflake SNOW US BUY

  +2% to analyst target; signal steady; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 67; +12.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +2% to target

  avg 80 buy-rated 100% trend +3 pts 11 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $293.28 · +12.3%
• 06
  Xiaomi 1810.HK HK BUY

  +39% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 61; +27.3% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +39% to target

  avg 70 buy-rated 82% trend +30 pts 11 readings
  allocation

  8%

  28.78 · +27.3%
• 07
  NVIDIA NVDA US BUY

  +51% to analyst target; signal steady; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 48; +1.6% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +51% to target

  avg 81 buy-rated 100% trend -1 pts 9 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $200.75 · +1.6%
• 08
  ServiceNow NOW US BUY

  +26% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 50; +5.1% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +26% to target

  avg 71 buy-rated 70% trend +38 pts 10 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $111.23 · +5.1%
• 09
  Salesforce CRM US BUY

  +31% to analyst target; signal strengthening; below 200-day; RSI 59; +12.7% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +31% to target

  avg 71 buy-rated 67% trend +37 pts 9 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $184.02 · +12.7%
• 10
  Occidental OXY US BUY

  +13% to analyst target; signal cooling; uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 59; +19.0% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +13% to target

  avg 81 buy-rated 100% trend -5 pts 11 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $57.07 · +19.0%
• 11
  Microsoft MSFT US BUY

  +21% to analyst target; signal strengthening; above 200-day, mixed short term; overbought (RSI 75); +20.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +21% to target

  avg 70 buy-rated 67% trend +35 pts 9 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $464.72 · +20.9%
• 12
  Micron MU US ACCUMULATE

  +83% to analyst target; signal steady; above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 43; -20.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +83% to target

  avg 72 buy-rated 100% trend +2 pts 10 readings
  allocation

  8%

  $823.03 · -20.3%

Direction of travel

IPO radar