Kurszettel №009 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged -2.0%. 26 of 44 names now screen as buys. Signals were broadly stable.

Avg 1-wk-2.0%Buy-rated26/44Readings7

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 24,169Total P&L+76.9%CHF 10,509Keep / Sell / Buy2 / 1 / 5Diversification6.2 eff · top 26%Ann. volatility53%

Currency exposure — USD 73% · EUR 18% · CHF 9%. Effective holdings 6.2 of 8.

AMD AMD ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 44; +0.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +10% to target · vol 86% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 6,385 26%

+272.8% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 44; -1.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +28% to target · vol 50% · maxDD -14% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,359 18%

+152.1% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 60; +3.9% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +46% to target · vol 42% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,374 14%

+117.7% P&L
Apple AAPL ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 68; +13.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -4% to target · vol 28% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,259 13%

+85.0% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 74); +4.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +7% to target · vol 37% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,149 9%

+10.2% P&L
Tesla TSLA KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · downtrend (below 50/200-day); oversold (RSI 16); -16.6% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +28% to target · vol 56% · maxDD -36% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,042 8%

+25.2% P&L
Microsoft MSFT KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 47; +4.4% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +46% to target · vol 33% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 1,868 8%

+19.3% P&L
Adobe ADBE TRIM

weakening — lighten the position · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 55; +14.5% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +20% to target · vol 47% · maxDD -48% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 734 3%

-58.3% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

Tesla TSLA+25% · 46
Microsoft MSFT+19% · 55

Sell / Trim

Adobe ADBE-58% · 44

Buy

ASML ASML.AS add96 · +28% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new96 · +20% tgt
Snowflake SNOW new90 · +11% tgt
AMD AMD add90 · +10% tgt
Palo Alto Networks PANW new85 · +4% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add84 · +46% tgt
Occidental OXY new83 · +12% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new83 · +38% tgt
Micron MU new82 · +64% tgt
TSMC (ADR) TSM new82 · +33% tgt
Logitech LOGN.SW add82 · +7% tgt
Comet Holding COTN.SW new82 · +33% tgt
Apple AAPL add76 · -4% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Microsoft MSFT+0
NVIDIA NVDA+0
Alphabet GOOGL+0
Amazon AMZN+0
Meta Platforms META+0

Conviction fading

Apple AAPL-8
Microsoft MSFT+0
NVIDIA NVDA+0
Alphabet GOOGL+0
Amazon AMZN+0

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

AMD AMDACCUMULATE → BUY
Tesla TSLAREDUCE → HOLD
Oracle ORCLSELL → HOLD
Netflix NFLXREDUCE → HOLD
Qualcomm QCOMHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Micron MUACCUMULATE → BUY
Arm Holdings ARMHOLD → BUY
TSMC (ADR) TSMACCUMULATE → BUY
Intel INTCHOLD → BUY
Adyen ADYEN.ASREDUCE → HOLD
Infineon IFX.DEACCUMULATE → BUY
STMicroelectronics STMPA.PAACCUMULATE → BUY
Dassault Systèmes DSY.PAHOLD → ACCUMULATE
Nokia NOKIA.HEHOLD → BUY
Ericsson ERIC-B.STREDUCE → HOLD
Logitech LOGN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY
Comet Holding COTN.SWACCUMULATE → BUY

Downgraded

Amazon AMZNBUY → ACCUMULATE
Meta Platforms METABUY → HOLD
Adobe ADBEACCUMULATE → REDUCE
CD Projekt 7CD.FREDUCE → SELL

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 4/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 19 (subdued); Software (IGV) leading at +2.1% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,412+0.05%+0.7%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.24,976-0.64%-2.0%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)18.58-0.64%-0.3%▼ below 200d
US 10y yield4.68-0.51%+6.3%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)175.88-1.44%-3.9%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)561.19-3.27%-9.3%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)87.98+1.01%+2.1%▼ below 200d