Kurszettel №003 — The week in conviction

Over the past week the book averaged -4.0%. 23 of 44 names now screen as buys. Signals were broadly stable.

Avg 1-wk-4.0%Buy-rated23/44Readings2

Where you stand — your holdings

Portfolio valueCHF 23,995Total P&L+77.0%CHF 10,437Keep / Sell / Buy4 / 1 / 3Diversification6.4 eff · top 25%Ann. volatility52%

Currency exposure — USD 74% · EUR 18% · CHF 9%. Effective holdings 6.4 of 8.

AMD AMD KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 46; -2.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +9% to target · vol 85% · maxDD -28% · 15 sh @ $140.00

CHF 6,009 25%

+254.1% P&L
ASML ASML.AS ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); RSI 45; -8.3% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +28% to target · vol 49% · maxDD -14% · 3 sh @ €620.00

CHF 4,260 18%

+147.9% P&L
NVIDIA NVDA ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 59; -2.2% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +49% to target · vol 42% · maxDD -20% · 20 sh @ $95.00

CHF 3,277 14%

+113.5% P&L
Apple AAPL ADD

strong signal — add on the monthly · uptrend (above rising 50/200-day); overbought (RSI 89); +11.5% 1-mo; analysts: buy, -5% to target · vol 28% · maxDD -14% · 12 sh @ $180.00

CHF 3,236 13%

+85.4% P&L
Tesla TSLA TRIM

weakening — lighten the position · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 50; -5.9% 1-mo; analysts: buy, +12% to target · vol 48% · maxDD -30% · 8 sh @ $250.00

CHF 2,462 10%

+52.3% P&L
Logitech LOGN.SW KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · above 200-day, mixed short term; RSI 60; -4.2% 1-mo; analysts: none, +10% to target · vol 38% · maxDD -32% · 25 sh @ CHF 78.00

CHF 2,076 9%

+6.5% P&L
Microsoft MSFT KEEP

neutral — hold and watch · downtrend (below 50/200-day); RSI 64; -0.0% 1-mo; analysts: strong buy, +42% to target · vol 34% · maxDD -35% · 6 sh @ $320.00

CHF 1,909 8%

+23.1% P&L
Adobe ADBE KEEP+

constructive — hold, add if room · below 200-day; overbought (RSI 78); +14.4% 1-mo; analysts: hold, +15% to target · vol 46% · maxDD -48% · 4 sh @ $540.00

CHF 767 3%

-56.1% P&L

The decision — keep · sell · buy

Keep

AMD AMD+254% · 66
Logitech LOGN.SW+6% · 70
Microsoft MSFT+23% · 54
Adobe ADBE-56% · 58

Sell / Trim

Tesla TSLA+52% · 38

Buy

Occidental OXY new87 · +18% tgt
Amazon AMZN new81 · +27% tgt
Snowflake SNOW new81 · +9% tgt
Meta Platforms META new80 · +27% tgt
ASML (ADR) ASML new79 · +21% tgt
Apple AAPL add78 · -5% tgt
NVIDIA NVDA add76 · +49% tgt
Palo Alto Networks PANW new76 · -8% tgt
ASML ASML.AS add73 · +28% tgt
Broadcom AVGO new73 · +41% tgt
VAT Group VACN.SW new71 · +0% tgt

What changed this week

Conviction rising

Microsoft MSFT+0
NVIDIA NVDA+0
Alphabet GOOGL+0
Amazon AMZN+0
Meta Platforms META+0

Conviction fading

Apple AAPL-6
Microsoft MSFT+0
NVIDIA NVDA+0
Alphabet GOOGL+0
Amazon AMZN+0

Upgrades & downgrades

Upgraded

— none —

Downgraded

— none —

Market context

Risk-on Risk-on — 4/5 equity gauges above their 200-day line; VIX 19 (subdued); Software (IGV) leading at +1.6% 1-mo.

Gauge Level1d1mo Trend
S&P 5007,458-1.01%-0.7%▲ above 200d
Nasdaq Comp.25,520-1.40%-3.2%▲ above 200d
VIX (fear)18.77+12.19%+14.4%▲ above 200d
US 10y yield4.54-0.61%+2.6%▲ above 200d
Tech (XLK)175.59-1.09%-5.8%▲ above 200d
Semis (SMH)556.53-2.18%-9.7%▲ above 200d
Software (IGV)92.80-0.96%+1.6%▼ below 200d